Will AI Replace My Job? How to Evaluate Your Career Risk

Depending on which headline you read, artificial intelligence is either going to eliminate millions of jobs or create millions of new ones. Those predictions get plenty of attention, but they aren't particularly helpful when you're trying to figure out whether your own career is at risk.

In a recent episode of Control Your Career, I spoke with Anirudh Bajaj, a senior product manager at Microsoft and author of Indispensable: Your Career Guide for the Age of AI. His research into more than 100 occupations examines how AI could affect employment and what might prevent organizations from adopting the technology.

Can AI Replace an Entire Job?

AI can retrieve information, analyze data, and complete certain tasks with clearly defined objectives. However, most positions involve responsibilities that require employees to make decisions, navigate relationships, and respond to circumstances that don't follow a predictable process.

A sales professional responsible for growing revenue in a particular market might use AI to analyze customer information and identify opportunities, but they'll still need to establish a strategy, coordinate with colleagues, and adjust their approach based on changing circumstances. The technology may help them complete individual activities without taking over responsibility for the broader business objective.

Employers could still reduce staffing if AI allows fewer employees to accomplish the same amount of work, while other organizations may use productivity improvements to expand their services or improve quality when customer demand supports growth.

The International Labour Organization's 2025 research estimates that approximately one in four workers worldwide is employed in an occupation with some exposure to generative AI. Researchers expect job transformation to be more common than complete replacement, although the degree of disruption will vary by occupation.

Research: Generative AI and Jobs: A 2025 Update — International Labour Organization

Why AI Adoption Will Vary Across Occupations

Ani developed a framework called PRIME to examine five barriers that influence whether organizations adopt AI, even when the technology is capable of performing certain responsibilities.

• Policy: Regulations, legal requirements, and questions about accountability may restrict AI use, particularly in professions where someone must accept responsibility for the accuracy of the work.
• Resources: Organizations have to determine whether the benefits of AI justify the costs of implementation, infrastructure, training, and ongoing operations.
• Inertia: Established processes, legacy systems, and organizational resistance can make implementation difficult, particularly when adopting AI requires significant changes to how work gets done.
• Market Acceptance: Customers and other stakeholders may prefer human involvement in certain services, regardless of whether AI can perform the work.
• Error Acceptance: Some professions require extremely high levels of accuracy, making human oversight essential when mistakes could have serious consequences.

In tax preparation, AI may be capable of completing portions of a return, but legal requirements, accuracy standards, and professional accountability can limit how extensively the technology replaces human involvement.

Even organizations within the same industry may adopt AI at different rates because of their resources, regulatory requirements, customers, and existing systems. AI's capabilities alone aren't enough to predict what will happen to an occupation.

What Does This Mean for Your Career?

Before making career decisions based on predictions about AI, I'd encourage you to evaluate your Realistic Reality, the first stage of my Control Your Career process.

Personal Reality: Your financial responsibilities, priorities, and flexibility will influence how you approach potential disruption. Someone who needs stable income and benefits may need a different preparation strategy from someone who has the resources to explore a career transition.

Career Reality: Examine the responsibilities you perform, the expertise you've developed, and how employer expectations are changing in your profession. Identify which activities AI could support and whether your current skills align with what organizations are beginning to require.

External Reality: Research what's happening in your industry, occupation, and organization. Changes in hiring practices, job descriptions, technology investments, and staffing decisions can provide information about how AI is influencing your field.

I'd also be cautious about assuming every layoff attributed to AI is the direct result of technology replacing employees. During our conversation, I questioned whether AI was becoming a convenient explanation for workforce reductions that may also reflect poor business decisions. Ani pointed to pandemic-era overhiring, economic conditions, and changing investment priorities as other factors that have contributed to layoffs.

If you're concerned about your position, examine what's happening within your organization and profession. Depending on what you learn, you may need to develop new skills, prepare for a possible transition, or continue pursuing your existing career goals.

For more on AI's impact on employment and Ani's PRIME framework, listen to our conversation on Control Your Career: https://www.ridethetidecollective.com/podcast/ai-jobs-future-of-work-anirudh-bajaj

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Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed by Anirudh Bajaj in this episode are his own and do not represent those of Microsoft or his employer. He is appearing in a personal capacity.

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Julia Toothacre, MS, is a career coach, strategist, and founder of Ride The Tide Collective. Through her Control Your Career methodology, she helps experienced professionals navigate career challenges, evaluate their options, and make informed decisions grounded in their individual circumstances, priorities, and goals.